Dataset Information

Regional variation in the role of humidity on city-level heat-related mortality.

ABSTRACT: The rising humid heat is regarded as a severe threat to human survivability, but the proper integration of humid heat into heat-health alerts is still being explored. Using state-of-the-art epidemiological and climatological datasets, we examined the association between multiple heat stress indicators (HSIs) and daily human mortality in 739 cities worldwide. Notable differences were observed in the long-term trends and timing of heat events detected by HSIs. Air temperature (T_air) predicts heat-related mortality well in cities with a robust negative T_air-relative humidity correlation (C_T-RH). However, in cities with near-zero or weak positive C_T-RH, HSIs considering humidity provide enhanced predictive power compared to T_air. Furthermore, the magnitude and timing of heat-related mortality measured by HSIs could differ largely from those associated with T_air in many cities. Our findings provide important insights into specific regions where humans are vulnerable to humid heat and can facilitate the further enhancement of heat-health alert systems.

SUBMITTER: Guo Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11305137 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Regional variation in the role of humidity on city-level heat-related mortality.

Guo Qiang Q Mistry Malcolm N MN Zhou Xudong X Zhao Gang G Kino Kanon K Wen Bo B Yoshimura Kei K Satoh Yusuke Y Cvijanovic Ivana I Kim Yoonhee Y Ng Chris Fook Sheng CFS Vicedo-Cabrera Ana M AM Armstrong Ben B Urban Aleš A Katsouyanni Klea K Masselot Pierre P Tong Shilu S Sera Francesco F Huber Veronika V Bell Michelle L ML Kyselý Jan J Gasparrini Antonio A Hashizume Masahiro M Oki Taikan T

PNAS nexus 20240725 8

The rising humid heat is regarded as a severe threat to human survivability, but the proper integration of humid heat into heat-health alerts is still being explored. Using state-of-the-art epidemiological and climatological datasets, we examined the association between multiple heat stress indicators (HSIs) and daily human mortality in 739 cities worldwide. Notable differences were observed in the long-term trends and timing of heat events detected by HSIs. Air temperature (T<sub>air</sub>) pre ...[more]

PMID: 39114575

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundExtreme heat exposure can lead to premature death. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events, resulting in many additional heat-related deaths globally, as well as changing the nature of extreme cold events. At the same time, vulnerability to extreme heat has decreased over time, probably due to a combination of physiological, behavioural, infrastructural, and technological adaptations. We aimed to account for these changes in vulnerability and avoid overstated projections for temperature-related mortality. We used the historical observed decrease in vulnerability to improve future mortality estimates.MethodsWe used historical mortality and temperature data from 208 US cities to quantify how observed changes in vulnerability from 1973 to 2013 affected projections of temperature-related mortality under various climate scenarios. We used geographically structured meta-regression to characterise the relationship between temperature and mortality for these urban populations over the specified time period. We then used the fitted relationships to project mortality under future climate conditions.FindingsBetween Oct 26, 2018, and March 9, 2020, we established that differences in vulnerability to temperature were geographically structured. Vulnerability decreased over time in most areas. US mortalities projected from a 2°C increase in mean temperature decreased by more than 97% when using 2003-13 data compared with 1973-82 data. However, these benefits declined with increasing temperatures, with a 6°C increase showing only an 84% decline in projected mortality based on 2003-13 data.InterpretationEven after accounting for adaptation, the projected effects of climate change on premature mortality constitute a substantial public health risk. Our work suggests large increases in temperature will require additional mitigation to avoid excess mortality from heat events, even in areas with high air conditioning coverage in place.FundingThe US Environmental Protection Agency and Abt Associates.

Project description:BackgroundHeat is a significant cause of mortality, but impact patterns are heterogenous. Previous studies assessing such heterogeneity focused exclusively on risk rather than heat-attributable mortality burdens and assume predictors are independent.ObjectivesWe assessed how four interrelated regional-level sociodemographic predictors-education, life expectancy, the ratio of older to younger people (aging index), and relative income-influence heterogeneity in heat-attributable mortality burdens in Europe and then derived insights into adaptation strategies.MethodsWe extracted four outcomes from a temperature-mortality study covering 16 European countries: the rate of increase in mortality risk at moderate and extreme temperatures (moderate and extreme slope, respectively), the minimum mortality temperature percentile (MMTP), and the underlying mortality rate. We used structural equation modeling with country-level random effects to quantify the direct and indirect influences of the predictors on the outcomes.ResultsHigher levels of education were directly associated with lower heat-related mortality at moderate and extreme temperatures via lower slopes and higher MMTPs. A one standard deviation increase in education was associated with a -0.46±0.14, -0.41±0.12, and 0.41±0.12 standard deviation (±standard error) change in the moderate slope, extreme slope, and MMTP, respectively. However, education had mixed indirect influences via associations with life expectancy, the aging index, and relative income. Higher life expectancy had mixed relations with heat-related mortality, being associated with higher risk at moderate temperatures (0.33±0.11 for the moderate slope; -0.19±0.097 for the MMTP) but lower underlying mortality rates (-0.72±0.097). A higher aging index was associated with higher burdens through higher risk at extreme temperatures (0.13±0.072 for the extreme slope) and higher underlying mortality rates (0.93±0.055). Relative income had relatively small, mixed influences.DiscussionOur novel approach provided insights into actions for reducing the health impacts of heat. First, the results show the interrelations between possible vulnerability-generating mechanisms and suggest future research directions. Second, the findings point to the need for a dual approach to adaptation, with actions that explicitly target heat exposure reduction and actions focused explicitly on the root causes of vulnerability. For the latter, the climate crisis may be leveraged to accelerate ongoing general public health programs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11766.

Dataset Information

Regional variation in the role of humidity on city-level heat-related mortality.

Publications

Regional variation in the role of humidity on city-level heat-related mortality.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets