Detecting and quantifying heterogeneity in susceptibility using contact tracing data.

ABSTRACT: The presence of heterogeneity in susceptibility, differences between hosts in their likelihood of becoming infected, can fundamentally alter disease dynamics and public health responses, for example, by changing the final epidemic size, the duration of an epidemic, and even the vaccination threshold required to achieve herd immunity. Yet, heterogeneity in susceptibility is notoriously difficult to detect and measure, especially early in an epidemic. Here we develop a method that can be used to detect and estimate heterogeneity in susceptibility given contact by using contact tracing data, which are typically collected early in the course of an outbreak. This approach provides the capability, given sufficient data, to estimate and account for the effects of this heterogeneity before they be

SUBMITTER: Tuschhoff BM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11309420 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature