Effects of global change on snakebite envenoming incidence up to 2050: a modelling assessment.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Human activities are driving climate, land cover, and population change (global change), and shifting the baseline geographical distribution of snakebite. The interacting effects of global change on snakes and communities at risk of snakebite are poorly understood, limiting capacity to anticipate and manage future changes in snakebite risk.

Methods

In this modelling study, we projected how global change will affect snakebite envenoming incidence in Sri Lanka, as a model system that has a high incidence of snakebite. We used the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenario analysis framework to integrate forecasts across the domains of: climate change (historical trend from WorldClim plus three underlying regional circulation models [RCMs] in the Coordinated Regiona

SUBMITTER: Martin G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11327114 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature