Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: GBD 2021 Lower Respiratory Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators
PROVIDER: S-EPMC11339187 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Sep
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
The Lancet. Infectious diseases 20240415 9
<h4>Background</h4>Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundUpper respiratory infections (URIs) are common infectious diseases worldwide. Accurate and timely assessment of the disease burden of URIs is crucial for governments to develop comprehensive prevention and control strategies, and to allocate and utilize healthcare resources more efficiently.MethodsFor URIs in Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and case numbers for incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs across the globe, five socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, 21 geographical regions, and 204 countries and territories were provided and analyzed. Trends from 1990 to 2021 were described using the average annual percentage change (AAPC), and future URIs burden was projected with a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, there was a significant decline in global ASIR (APCC = -289.86, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -298.59 to -281.12), ASPR (AAPC = -4.04, 95% CI: -4.16 to -3.92), ASMR (AAPC = -0.02, 95 % CI: -0.02 to -0.03) and age-standardized DALY rate (AAPC = -0.75, 95% CI: -0.76 to -0.74). The ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and age-standardized DALY rate were high in elderly for both males and females, and both genders. Similarly, the number of incident cases, prevalence cases, deaths, and DALY cases for URIs was highest in children under five years. The ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate exhibited a negative correlation with SDI across 204 countries and territories in 2021. The ASIR and ASPR for URIs will show an upward trend from 2022 to 2050, while ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate are expected to decline. Low birth weight for gestation remains the leading contributor to deaths related to URIs.ConclusionDespite the global decline in URIs burden, significant challenges remain among the elderly population. These findings support the optimization and implementation of public health policies, including targeted vaccination and integrated One Health approaches to reduce the burden in high-risk populations.
| S-EPMC11570330 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeThe prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is on the rise worldwide. We utilizes data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021 to analyze the national-level burden of IBD, trends in disease incidence, and epidemiological characteristics.MethodsDetailed information on IBD was gathered from 204 countries and territories spanning 1990 to 2021, sourced from the GBD 2021. Calculations were performed for incidence rates, mortality rates, disease-adjusted life years (DALYs), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). These trends were analyzed based on region, nationality, age, gender, and World Bank income level stratifications.ResultsThe global age-standardised incident rate (ASIR) of IBD increased from 4.22 per 100000 in 1990 to 4.45 per 100000 in 2021. However, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) decreased from 0.60 per 100000 in 1990 to 0.52 per 100000 in 2021. Similarly, the age-standardised DALYs rate decreased from 21.55 per 100000 in 1990 to 18.07 per 100000 in 2021. Gender comparisons showed negligible differences in disease burden. The greatest increase in IBD-associated ASIR and ASMR occurred in World Bank upper-middle income region (EAPCs, 1.25) and World Bank high-income region (EAPCs, 1.00), respectively. Regionally, East Asia experienced the largest increase in ASIR (EAPCs, 2.89). Among 204 countries, China had the greatest increases in ASIR (EAPCs, 2.93), Netherlands had the highest ASMR in 2021 (2.21 per 100000).ConclusionsGlobal incidence rate of IBD have been increasing from 1990 to 2021, while the DALYs and mortality have been decreasing. The escalating incident rates in select Asian regions deserves further attention.
| S-EPMC11380638 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDeaths from suicide are a tragic yet preventable cause of mortality. Quantifying the burden of suicide to understand its geographical distribution, temporal trends, and variation by age and sex is an essential step in suicide prevention. We aimed to present a comprehensive set of global, regional, and national estimates of suicide burden.MethodsWe produced estimates of the number of deaths and age-standardised mortality rates of suicide globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021, and disaggregated these results by age and sex. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 estimates of deaths attributable to suicide were broken down into two comprehensive categories: those by firearms and those by other specified means. For this analysis, we also produced estimates of mean age at the time of death from suicide, incidence of suicide attempts compared with deaths, and age-standardised rates of suicide by firearm. We acquired data from vital registration, verbal autopsy, and mortality surveillance that included 23 782 study-location-years of data from GBD 2021. Point estimates were calculated from the average of 1000 randomly selected possible values of deaths from suicide by age, sex, and geographical location. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution.FindingsGlobally, 746 000 deaths (95% UI 692 000-800 000) from suicide occurred in 2021, including 519 000 deaths (485 000-556 000) among males and 227 000 (200 000-255 000) among females. The age-standardised mortality rate has declined over time, from 14·9 deaths (12·8-15·7) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 9·0 (8·3-9·6) per 100 000 in 2021. Regionally, mortality rates due to suicide were highest in eastern Europe (19·2 [17·5-20·8] per 100 000), southern sub-Saharan Africa (16·1 [14·0-18·3] per 100 000), and central sub-Saharan Africa (14·4 [11·0-19·1] per 100 000). The mean age at which individuals died from suicide progressively increased during the study period. For males, the mean age at death by suicide in 1990 was 43·0 years (38·0-45·8), increasing to 47·0 years (43·5-50·6) in 2021. For females, it was 41·9 years (30·9-46·7) in 1990 and 46·9 years (41·2-52·8) in 2021. The incidence of suicide attempts requiring medical care was consistently higher at the regional level for females than for males. The number of deaths by suicide using firearms was higher for males than for females, and substantially varied by country and region. The countries with the highest age-standardised rate of suicides attributable to firearms in 2021 were the USA, Uruguay, and Venezuela.InterpretationDeaths from suicide remain variable by age and sex and across geographical locations, although population mortality rates have continued to improve globally since the 1990s. This study presents, for the first time in GBD, a quantification of the mean age at the time of suicide death, alongside comprehensive estimates of the burden of suicide throughout the world. These analyses will help guide future approaches to reduce suicide mortality that consider a public health framework for prevention.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC11876099 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is a major infectious disease with significant public health implications. Its widespread transmission, prolonged treatment duration, notable side effects, and high mortality rate pose severe challenges. This study examines the epidemiological characteristics of TB globally and across major regions, providing a scientific basis for enhancing TB prevention and control measures worldwide.MethodsThe ecological study used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. It assessed new incidence cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), mortality rates (ASMRs), and DALY rates for drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB), multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) from 1990 to 2021. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project ASIR and ASMR.ResultsIn 2021, the global ASIR for all HIV-negative TB was 103.00 per 100,000 population [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 92.21, 114.91 per 100,000 population], declining by 0.40% (95% UI: - 0.43, - 0.38%) compared to 1990. The global ASMR was 13.96 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 12.61, 15.72 per 100,000 population), with a decline of 0.44% (95% UI: - 0.61, - 0.23%) since 1990. The global age-standardized DALY rate for HIV-negative TB was 580.26 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 522.37, 649.82 per 100,000 population), showing a decrease of 0.65% (95% UI: - 0.69, - 0.57 per 100,000 population) from 1990. The global ASIR of MDR-TB has not decreased since 2015, instead, it has shown a slow upward trend in recent years. The ASIR of XDR-TB has exhibited significant increase in the past 30 years. The projections indicate MDR-TB and XDR-TB are expected to see significant increases in both ASIR and ASMR from 2022 to 2035, highlighting the growing challenge of drug-resistant TB.ConclusionsThis study found that the ASIR of MDR-TB and XDR-TB has shown an upward trend in recent years. To reduce the TB burden, it is essential to enhance health infrastructure and increase funding in low-SDI regions. Developing highly efficient, accurate, and convenient diagnostic reagents, along with more effective therapeutic drugs, and improving public health education and community engagement, are crucial for curbing TB transmission.
| S-EPMC11331668 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEpilepsy is one of the most common serious neurological disorders and affects individuals of all ages across the globe. The aim of this study is to provide estimates of the epilepsy burden on the global, regional, and national levels for 1990-2021.MethodsUsing well established Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) methodology, we quantified the prevalence of active idiopathic (epilepsy of genetic or unknown origin) and secondary epilepsy (epilepsy due to an underlying abnormality of the brain structure or chemistry), as well as incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, and location (globally, 21 GBD regions and seven super-regions, World Bank country income levels, Socio-demographic Index [SDI], and 204 countries) and their trends from 1990 to 2021. Vital registrations and verbal autopsies provided information about deaths, and data on the prevalence and severity of epilepsy, largely came from population representative surveys. All estimates were calculated with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).FindingsIn 2021, there were 51·7 million (95% UI 44·9-58·9) people with epilepsy (idiopathic and secondary combined) globally, with an age-standardised prevalence of 658 per 100 000 (569-748). Idiopathic epilepsy had an age-standardised prevalence of 307 per 100 000 (235-389) globally, with 24·2 million (18·5-30·7) prevalent cases, and secondary epilepsy had a global age-standardised prevalence of 350 per 100 000 (322-380). In 2021, 0·7% of the population had active epilepsy (0·3% attributed to idiopathic epilepsy and 0·4% to secondary epilepsy), and the age-standardised global prevalence of epilepsy from idiopathic and secondary epilepsy combined increased from 1990 to 2021 by 10·8% (1·1-21·3), mainly due to corresponding changes in secondary epilepsy. However, age-standardised death and DALY rates of idiopathic epilepsy reduced from 1990 to 2021 (decline of 15·8% [8·8-22·8] and 14·5% [4·2-24·2], respectively). There were three-fold to four-fold geographical differences in the burden of active idiopathic epilepsy, with the bulk of the burden residing in low-income to middle-income countries: 82·1% (81·1-83·4) of incident, 80·4% prevalent (79·7-82·7), 84·7% (83·7-85·1) fatal epilepsy, and 87·9% (86·2-89·2) epilepsy DALYs.InterpretationAlthough the global trends in idiopathic epilepsy deaths and DALY rates have improved in the preceding decades, in 2021 there were almost 52 million people with active epilepsy (24 million from idiopathic epilepsy and 28 million from secondary epilepsy), with the bulk of the burden (>80%) residing in low-income to middle-income countries. Better treatment and prevention of epilepsy are required, along with further research on risk factors of idiopathic epilepsy, good-quality long-term epilepsy surveillance studies, and exploration of the possible effect of stigma and cultural differences in seeking medical attention for epilepsy.FundingBill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC11876103 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages.MethodsWe used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location. We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years. We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000-16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016.FindingsIn 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475-720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749-1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2 145 584-2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1 189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445-1 770 660). Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61·4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45·7-69·6). Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden.InterpretationOur findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults. By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world's most susceptible populations.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC6202443 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGout, an inflammatory arthritis, disproportionately affects the elderly due to hyperuricemia, leading to significant health-related quality of life impairments and escalating healthcare costs. However, a comprehensive global analysis focusing on the elderly population is needed to inform effective interventions.MethodsUtilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, this study assessed the prevalence, incidence, and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) of gout among individuals aged ≥ 55 years in 204 countries from 1990 to 2021. We also evaluated the impact of high body mass index (BMI) and kidney dysfunction as key risk factors.ResultsThe study identified 37,230,366 cases of gout globally among the elderly, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 2505.4 per 100,000 population. There was a notable increase in prevalence with an Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) of 1.08. Similarly, the age-standardized incidence and YLD rates increased, with EAPCs of 0.83 and 1.06, respectively. High-income regions, particularly Australasia and High-income North America, exhibited the highest rates, while Central Latin America and the Caribbean reported the lowest. Males had a higher burden of gout than females. High BMI and kidney dysfunction were significant contributors to YLDs, with their impact more pronounced in regions with higher Socio-Demographic Index (SDI).ConclusionThe study found a growing gout burden among the elderly, with substantial regional and gender disparities. It underscores the urgent need for targeted public health interventions, particularly in high SDI regions, to address modifiable risk factors like high BMI and kidney dysfunction and to curb the rising trend of gout prevalence and disability.
| S-EPMC11600630 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLiver cancer is a growing global health issue, with significant geographical disparities in prevalence and mortality. Understanding these differences is key to developing effective prevention and treatment strategies.MethodsWe analyzed liver cancer trends from 1990 to 2021 across 204 countries using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We modeled mortality from vital registration data and estimated non-fatal burden using primary studies, hospital discharges, and claims data. We calculated prevalence, mortality, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs, adjusting for age and reporting rates per 100,000 population with 95% UI.FindingsIn 2021, there were 739,299 (673114-821948) cases of liver cancer worldwide. The age-standardized prevalence rate increased from (7.75 [6.91-8.43] per 100,000 people) in 1990 to (8.68[7.90-9.67] per 100,000 people) in 2021, while the mortality rate slightly decreased from(4.48 [4.10-4.93] per 100,000 people) to (6.13 [5.58-6.84] per 100,000 people). High-income North America had the highest prevalence rate, and Southern Latin America had the lowest. Mongolia had the highest prevalence and mortality rates, while Morocco had the lowest. The total YLDs attributed to liver cancer nearly tripled from 1990 to 2021, and the age-standardized DALY rate decreased. In the frontier analysis, countries or regions with higher SDI have greater potential for burden improvement. In the frontier analysis of SDI and age-standardized liver cancer DALY rates in 2021, countries with higher SDI (> 0.85) and higher effective differences relative to their level of development include America, Canada, Germany, Netherlands, etc., while frontier countries with lower SDI (< 0.5) and lower effective differences include Somalia, Papua New Guinea, Yemen, Lao People's Democratic Republic, etc. Countries with larger effective differences include Togo, Gambia, Australia, Norway, etc. CONCLUSION: The global burden of liver cancer is decreasing, but the prevalence of liver cancer is increasing, with significant differences across regions worldwide. These findings can inform health policy and research to address this global challenge.InterpretationFrom 1990 to 2021, the incidence of liver cancer in many regions has increased significantly, which is expected to impose a huge social and economic burden on governments and health systems in the coming years. Our research findings may assist policymakers in devising strategies to combat liver cancer, including educating professionals to address the burden of this complex disease.
| S-EPMC11890516 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNutrient deficiency disorders (NDs) harm growth, causing economic losses. Addressing NDs is a global priority, yet recent data is limited. This study examines latest NDs data across 204 countries and 21 regions from 1990 to 2021.MethodsData from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study were used to analyze NDs-related incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) at global, national, and regional levels. Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to evaluate temporal trends, with Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) assessing long-term patterns.ResultsIn 2021, the global burden of NDs remained substantial, with a total of 1,845,246,558 cases with an ASPR of 23,858.99 cases per 100,000 individuals (95% UI: 23,445.77-24,320.82). The ASIR was 7,725.1 per 100,000 people (95% UI: 7,404.01-8,109.01), while the ASMR was 3.03 per 100,000 persons (95% UI: 2.69-3.4). Additionally, age-standardized DALYs rate was 657.62 per 100,000 individuals (95% UI: 489.93-869.58). Regionally, areas with low SDI exhibited the greatest ASPR, ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALYs rates, whereas high SDI regions had the lowest rates.ConclusionsAlthough global NDs burden has declined from 1990 to 2021, regional and demographic disparities remain. Enhanced healthcare access in high-risk SDI regions is essential to further mitigate NDs's global impact.
| S-EPMC11774684 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPreterm birth and its complications are leading causes of mortality among children under five years of age. Given the increasing burden of preterm birth on neonatal mortality and long-term health outcomes worldwide, a comprehensive global analysis is essential to guide effective public health interventions and policies. This study aims to assess the burden of preterm birth at the global, regional, and national levels.MethodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, this study analysed trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as primary outcomes for preterm birth from 1990 to 2021 at global, regional, and national levels. Data were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis, decomposition analysis, and the health inequality concentration index.FindingsGlobally, the incidence, mortality and DALYs due to preterm birth have shown a declining trend, but ASIR started to increase in 2016. Males were more commonly born preterm than females (12329075.82, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 12192632.55-12464605.4 vs. 9224694.94, 95% UI: 9113876.1-9330107.89). Changes in DALYs were primarily due to epidemiological change (111.97%) and population (-21.59%). Low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions increased in annual incidence cases (43.1%, 95% UI: 40.17-46.09), while high SDI regions decreased in annual incidence cases (-9.6%, 95% UI: -11.45 to -7.79). The highest annual mortality and DALYs respectively occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (295490.66, 95% UI: 241762.78-353624.41) and South Asia (32760273.93, 95% UI: 27295547.76-39070225.69). Western sub-Saharan Africa showed the largest increase in annual incidence (98.95%, 95% UI: 94.77 to 103.09), and Australasia had the lowest annual mortality (287.18, 95% UI: 244.26-339.42) and DALYs (61081.4, 95% UI: 50897.33-73069.96). Western sub-Saharan Africa also had the highest ASMR (21.57, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.9-25.89). The highest ASIR (543.78, 95% CI: 535.11-553.21) and age-standardized DALYs (2064.65, 95% CI: 1717.27-2473.36) both occurred in South Asia, while the lowest ASIR and age-standardized DALYs were seen in East Asia (147.31, 95% CI: 144.22-150.85) and High-income Asia Pacific (143.32, 95% CI: 117.9-167.25). India, Nigeria, and Pakistan ranked highest globally in terms of annual incidence cases, mortality, and DALYs, while the lowest annual incidence, mortality and DALYs respectively occurred in Tokelau (2.34, 95% UI: 2.12-2.56), San Marino (0.04, 95% UI: 0.02-0.07) and Tokelau (17.22, 95% UI: 11.11-24.95).InterpretationWhile the global burden of preterm birth has decreased, significant disparities persist, especially in low SDI regions. There is a need for more refined policies and preventive measures to effectively address preterm birth.FundingNo funds, grants, or other support was received.
| S-EPMC11462015 | biostudies-literature