Early evaluation of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ctDNA-guided selection for adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II colon cancer
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PROVIDER: S-EPMC11339739 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundWe aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of risk-based strategies to improve the selection of surgically treated stage II colon cancer (CC) patients for adjuvant chemotherapy.MethodsUsing the 'Personalized Adjuvant TreaTment in EaRly stage coloN cancer' (PATTERN) model, we evaluated five selection strategies: (1) no chemotherapy, (2) Dutch guideline recommendations assuming observed adherence, (3) Dutch guideline recommendations assuming perfect adherence, (4) biomarker mutation OR pT4 stage strategy in which patients with MSS status combined with a pT4 stage or a mutation in BRAF and/or KRAS receive chemotherapy assuming perfect adherence and (5) biomarker mutation AND pT4 stage strategy in which patients with MSS status combined with a pT4 stage tumor and a BRAF and/or KRAS mutation receive chemotherapy assuming perfect adherence. Outcomes were number of CC deaths per 1000 patients and total discounted costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient (pp). Analyses were conducted from a societal perspective. The robustness of model predictions was assessed in sensitivity analyses.ResultsThe reference strategy, that is, no adjuvant chemotherapy, resulted in 139 CC deaths in a cohort of 1000 patients, 8.077 QALYs pp and total costs of €22,032 pp. Strategies 2-5 were more effective (range 8.094-8.217 QALYs pp and range 118-136 CC deaths per 1000 patients) and more costly (range €22,404-€25,102 pp). Given a threshold of €50,000/QALY, the optimal use of resources would be to treat patients with either the full adherence strategy and biomarker mutation OR pT4 stage strategy.ConclusionSelection of stage II CC patients for chemotherapy can be improved by either including biomarker status in the selection strategy or by improving adherence to the Dutch guideline recommendations.
| S-EPMC7958170 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundColon cancer incidence is rising in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where resource limitations and cost often dictate treatment decisions. In this study, we evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer treatment in South Africa (ZA) and illustrate how such analyses can inform cancer treatment recommendations in a LMIC.MethodsWe created a decision-analytic Markov model to compare lifetime costs and outcomes for patients with high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer treated with three adjuvant chemotherapy regimens in a public hospital in ZA: capecitabine and oxaliplatin (CAPOX) for 3 and 6 months, and capecitabine for 6 months, compared to no adjuvant treatment. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in international dollars (I$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold equal to the 2021 ZA gross domestic product per capita (I$13,764/DALY averted).ResultsCAPOX for 3 months was cost-effective for both patients with high-risk stage II and patients with stage III colon cancer (ICER = I$250/DALY averted and I$1042/DALY averted, respectively), compared to no adjuvant chemotherapy. In subgroup analyses of patients by tumor stage and number of positive lymph nodes, for patients with high-risk stage II colon cancer and T4 tumors, and patients with stage III colon cancer with T4 or N2 disease. CAPOX for 6 months was cost-effective and the optimal strategy. The optimal strategy in other settings will vary by local WTP thresholds. Decision analytic tools can be used to identify cost-effective cancer treatment strategies in resource-constrained settings.ConclusionColon cancer incidence is increasing in low- and middle-income countries, including South Africa, where resource constraints can impact treatment decisions. This cost-effectiveness study evaluates three systemic adjuvant chemotherapy options, compared to surgery alone, for patients in South African public hospitals after surgical resection for high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer. Doublet adjuvant chemotherapy (capecitabine and oxaliplatin) for 3 months is the cost-effective strategy and should be recommended in South Africa.
| S-EPMC10417185 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesAdjuvant chemotherapy is not recommended for patients with average-risk stage II (T3N0) colon cancer. Nevertheless, a subgroup of these patients who are CDX2-negative might benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of testing for the absence of CDX2 expression followed by adjuvant chemotherapy (fluorouracil combined with oxaliplatin [FOLFOX]) for patients with stage II colon cancer.MethodsWe developed a decision model to simulate a hypothetical cohort of 65-year-old patients with average-risk stage II colon cancer with 7.2% of these patients being CDX2-negative under 2 different interventions: (1) test for the absence of CDX2 expression followed by adjuvant chemotherapy for CDX2-negative patients and (2) no CDX2 testing and no adjuvant chemotherapy for any patient. We derived disease progression parameters, adjuvant chemotherapy effectiveness and utilities from published analyses, and cancer care costs from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare data. Sensitivity analyses were conducted.ResultsTesting for CDX2 followed by FOLFOX for CDX2-negative patients had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $5500/quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) compared with no CDX2 testing and no FOLFOX (6.874 vs 6.838 discounted QALYs and $89 991 vs $89 797 discounted US dollar lifetime costs). In sensitivity analyses, considering a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100 000/QALY, testing for CDX2 followed by FOLFOX on CDX2-negative patients remains cost-effective for hazard ratios of <0.975 of the effectiveness of FOLFOX in CDX2-negative patients in reducing the rate of developing a metastatic recurrence.ConclusionsTesting tumors of patients with stage II colon cancer for CDX2 and administration of adjuvant treatment to the subgroup found CDX2-negative is a cost-effective and high-value management strategy across a broad range of plausible assumptions.
| S-EPMC8894795 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) is a promising biomarker that may better identify stage II colon cancer (CC) patients who will benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) compared to standard clinicopathological parameters. The DYNAMIC study demonstrated that ctDNA-informed treatment decreased AC utilisation without compromising recurrence free survival, but medical oncologists' willingness to utilise ctDNA results to inform AC decision is unknown. Medical oncologists from Australia, Canada and New Zealand were presented with clinical vignettes for stage II CC comprised of two variables with three levels each (age: ≤50, 52-69, ≥70 years; and clinicopathological risk of recurrence: low, intermediate, high) and were queried about ctDNA testing and treatment recommendations based on results. Sixty-four colorectal oncologists completed at least one vignette (all vignettes, n = 59). The majority of oncologist were Australian (70%; Canada: n = 13; New Zealand: n = 6) and had over 10 years of clinical experience (n = 41; 64%). The proportion of oncologists requesting ctDNA testing exceeded 80% for all vignettes, except for age ≥ 70 and low-risk disease (63%). Following a positive ctDNA result, the proportion of oncologists recommending AC (p < 0.01) and recommending oxaliplatin-based doublet (p < 0.01) increased in all vignettes. Following a negative result, the proportion recommending AC decreased in all intermediate and high-risk vignettes (p < 0.01).
| S-EPMC10648421 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesWe evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a 12-month regimen of oral capecitabine versus a standard 6-month regimen as postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer.MethodsWe utilized patient-level data from a multi-institutional randomized controlled trial (JFMC37-0801) that investigated prolonged oral fluoropyrimidine monotherapy. The analysis considered three health states: stable disease, post-metastasis, and death. A parametric statistical model with a cure model was used to estimate the survival curve. The analysis was conducted from the Japanese public healthcare payer's perspective, considering only direct medical costs. A lifetime horizon was used, with a discount rate of 2% for both cost and health outcomes. Health outcomes were evaluated in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).ResultsThe estimated cure rates for colon cancer were 0.726 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.676-0.776] and 0.694 (95% CI 0.655-0.733) with the 12- and 6-month regimens, respectively; and the estimated 5-year relapse-free survival rates were 74.4% and 69.8%, respectively. The estimated lifetime cost for 12 months of capecitabine was JPY 3.365 million (USD 31,159), compared with JPY 3.376 million (USD 31,262) for 6 months. The estimated QALY were 12.48 and 11.77 for the 12- and 6-month regimens, respectively. Thus, the 12-month capecitabine regimen was dominant. Using a willingness-to-pay threshold of JPY 5 million per QALY, we determined a 97.4% probability that the 12-month capecitabine regimen is more cost-effective than the 6-month regimen.ConclusionsTwelve months of capecitabine is the favorable option for postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer from the perspective of cost-effectiveness.
| S-EPMC9395498 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundOur aim was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of 3 months' adjuvant chemotherapy versus 6 months in high-risk (T4 stage + microsatellite stable) stage II colon cancer (CC) patients.MethodsUsing the validated PATTERN Markov cohort model, which simulates the disease progression of stage II CC patients from diagnosis to death, we first evaluated a reference strategy in which high-risk patients were treated with chemotherapy for 6 months. In the second strategy, treatment duration was shortened to 3 months. Both strategies were evaluated for CAPOX (capecitabine plus oxaliplatin) and FOLFOX (fluorouracil, leucovorin and oxaliplatin). Based on trial data, we assumed that shortened treatment duration compared with a 6-month regimen was equally effective for CAPOX and less effective for FOLFOX. Adverse events were highest in the 6-month strategy. Analyses were conducted from a societal perspective using a lifelong time horizon. Outcomes were number of CC deaths per 1000 patients and total discounted costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient (pp). Incremental net monetary benefit (iNMB) was calculated using a willingness-to-pay value of €50,000/QALY.ResultsFor CAPOX, the 6-month strategy resulted in 316 CC deaths per 1000 patients, 6.71 QALYs pp and total costs of €41,257 pp. The 3-month strategy resulted in an equal number of CC deaths, but higher QALYs (6.80 pp) and lower costs (€37,645 pp), leading to a iNMB of €8454 per person for 3 months versus 6 months. For FOLFOX, the 6-month strategy resulted in 316 CC deaths per 1000 patients, 6.71 QALYs pp and total costs of €47,135 pp. The 3-month strategy resulted in more CC deaths (393), lower QALYs (6.19 pp) and lower costs (€44,389 pp). An iNMB of -€23,189 was found for 3 months versus 6 months.ConclusionOur findings indicate that 3 months' adjuvant chemotherapy should be considered as standard of care in high-risk stage II CC patients for CAPOX, but not for FOLFOX.
| S-EPMC7502861 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Adjuvant chemotherapy is typically considered for patients with stage II colon cancer characterized by poor prognostic features, including obstruction, perforation, emergent admission, T4 stage, resection of fewer than 12 lymph nodes, and poor histology. Despite frequent use, the survival advantage conferred on patients with stage II disease by chemotherapy is yet unproven. We sought to determine the overall survival benefit of chemotherapy among patients with stage II colon cancer having poor prognostic features.A total of 43,032 Medicare beneficiaries who underwent colectomy for stage II and III primary colon adenocarcinoma diagnosed from 1992 to 2005 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) -Medicare database. ?(2) and two-way analysis of variance were used to assess differences in patient- and disease-related characteristics. Five-year overall survival was examined using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression with propensity score weighting.Of the 24,847 patients with stage II cancer, 75% had one or more poor prognostic features. Adjuvant chemotherapy was received by 20% of patients with stage II disease and 57% of patients with stage III disease. After adjustment, 5-year survival benefit from chemotherapy was observed only for patients with stage III disease (hazard ratio[HR], 0.64; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.67). No survival benefit was observed for patients with stage II cancer with no poor prognostic features (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.84 to 1.25) or stage II cancer with any poor prognostic features (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.13).Among Medicare patients identified with stage II colon cancer, either with or without poor prognostic features, adjuvant chemotherapy did not substantially improve overall survival. This lack of benefit must be considered in treatment decisions for similar older adults with colon cancer.
| S-EPMC3164243 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundTo explore the potential value of consensus molecular subtypes (CMS) in stage II colon cancer treatment selection, we carried out an early cost-effectiveness assessment of a CMS-based strategy for adjuvant chemotherapy.MethodsWe used a Markov cohort model to evaluate three selection strategies: (i) the Dutch guideline strategy (MSS+pT4), (ii) the mutation-based strategy (MSS plus a BRAF and/or KRAS mutation or MSS plus pT4), and (iii) the CMS-based strategy (CMS4 or pT4). Outcomes were number of colon cancer deaths per 1,000 patients, total discounted costs per patient (pp), and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) pp. The analyses were conducted from a Dutch societal perspective. The robustness of model predictions was assessed in sensitivity analyses. To evaluate the value of future research, we performed a value of information (VOI) analysis.ResultsThe Dutch guideline strategy resulted in 8.10 QALYs pp and total costs of €23,660 pp. The CMS-based and mutation-based strategies were more effective and more costly, with 8.12 and 8.13 QALYs pp and €24,643 and €24,542 pp, respectively. Assuming a threshold of €50,000/QALY, the mutation-based strategy was considered as the optimal strategy in an incremental analysis. However, the VOI analysis showed substantial decision uncertainty driven by the molecular markers (expected value of partial perfect information: €18M).ConclusionsOn the basis of current evidence, our analyses suggest that the mutation-based selection strategy would be the best use of resources. However, the extensive decision uncertainty for the molecular markers does not allow selection of an optimal strategy at present.ImpactFuture research is needed to eliminate decision uncertainty driven by molecular markers.
| S-EPMC7611620 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAdjuvant fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy substantially reduces recurrence and mortality after resection of stage 3 colon cancer. While standard doses of 5-fluorouracil and capecitabine are safe for most patients, the risk of severe toxicity is increased for the approximately 6% of patients with dihydropyimidine dehydrogenase (DPD) deficiency caused by pathogenic DPYD gene variants. Pre-treatment screening for pathogenic DPYD gene variants reduces severe toxicity but has not been widely adopted in the United States.MethodsWe conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of DPYD genotyping prior to fluoropyrimidine-based adjuvant chemotherapy for stage 3 colon cancer, covering the c.1129-5923C>G (HapB3), c.1679T>G (*13), c.1905+1G>A (*2A), and c.2846A>T gene variants. We used a Markov model with a 5-year horizon, taking a United States healthcare perspective. Simulated patients with pathogenic DPYD gene variants received reduced-dose fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for DPYD genotyping.ResultsCompared with no screening for DPD deficiency, DPYD genotyping increased per-patient costs by $78 and improved survival by 0.0038 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), leading to an ICER of $20,506/QALY. In 1-way sensitivity analyses, The ICER exceeded $50,000 per QALY when the cost of the DPYD genotyping assay was greater than $286. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis using a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY DPYD genotyping was preferred to no screening in 96.2% of iterations.ConclusionAmong patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy for stage 3 colon cancer, screening for DPD deficiency with DPYD genotyping is a cost-effective strategy for preventing infrequent but severe and sometimes fatal toxicities of fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy.
| S-EPMC10496767 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeDebates exist regarding the effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II colon cancer. This study aimed to investigate the current status of adjuvant chemotherapy and its impact on survival for Korean stage II colon cancer patients by analyzing the National Quality Assessment data.Materials and methodsA total of 7,880 patientswho underwent curative resection for stage II colon adenocarcinoma between January 2011 andDecember 2014 in Koreawere selected randomly as evaluation subjects for the quality assessment. The factors that influenced overall survival were identified. The high-risk group was defined as having at least one of the following: perforation/ obstruction, lymph node harvest less than 12, lymphovascular/perineural invasion, positive resection margin, poor differentiation, or pathologic T4 stage.ResultsThe median follow-up period was 38 months (range, 1 to 63 months). Chemotherapy was a favorable prognostic factor for either the high- (hazard ratio [HR], 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.38 to 0.59; p < 0.001) or low-risk group (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.61 to 0.89; p=0.002) in multivariate analysis. This was also the case in patients over 70 years of age. The hazard ratio was significantly increased as the number of involved risk factors was increased in patients who didn't receive chemotherapy. Adding oxaliplatin showed no difference in survival (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 0.91 to 2.03; p=0.132).ConclusionAdjuvant chemotherapy can be recommended for stage II colon cancer patients, but the addition of oxaliplatin to the regimen must be selective.
| S-EPMC6192938 | biostudies-literature