Dataset Information

Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure.

ABSTRACT: Provided the considerable logistical challenges of anticipatory action and disaster response programs, there is a need for early warning of crop failures at lead times of six to twelve months. But crop yield forecasts at these lead times are virtually nonexistent. By leveraging recent advances in climate forecasting, we demonstrate that global preseason crop yield forecasts are not only possible but are skillful over considerable portions of cropland. Globally, maize and wheat forecasts are skillful at lead times of up to a year ahead of harvest for 15% and 30% of harvested areas, respectively. Forecasts are most skillful in Southeast Africa and Southeast Asia for maize and parts of South and Central Asia, Australia, and Southeast South America for wheat. Wheat forecasts, furthermore, remain skillful at lead times of over 18 months ahead of harvest in some locations. Our results demonstrate that the potential for preseason crop yield forecasts is greater than previously appreciated.

SUBMITTER: Anderson W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11344146 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure.

Anderson Weston W Shukla Shraddhanand S Verdin Jim J Hoell Andrew A Justice Christina C Barker Brian B Slinski Kimberly K Lenssen Nathan N Lou Jiale J Cook Benjamin I BI McNally Amy A

Nature communications 20240823 1

Provided the considerable logistical challenges of anticipatory action and disaster response programs, there is a need for early warning of crop failures at lead times of six to twelve months. But crop yield forecasts at these lead times are virtually nonexistent. By leveraging recent advances in climate forecasting, we demonstrate that global preseason crop yield forecasts are not only possible but are skillful over considerable portions of cropland. Globally, maize and wheat forecasts are skil ...[more]

PMID: 39179601

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Project description:Soil rotational tillage is an effective measure to overcome the problems caused by long-term of a single tillage, but the effect of the interval time of rotational tillage practices is not very well understood. Therefore, we conducted a 3-year field study in a wheat-maize cropping system to evaluate the effects of rotary tillage (RT) in rotation with plowing tillage (PT) on soil properties in northern China. Four practices were designed as follows: 3 years of RT to a depth of 10-15 cm (3RT), 3 years of PT to a depth of 30-35 cm (3PT), 1 year of PT followed by 2 years of RT (PT+2RT), and 2 years of PT followed by 1 year of RT (2PT+RT). Within 20 cm of the surface soil, the 3RT treatment significantly increased the soil quality index (SQI) by 6.0%, 8.8% and 13.1%, respectively, relative to the PT+2RT, 2PT+RT and 3PT treatments. The improvement was closely related to the significant increase in the soil organic carbon (SOC) and available nutrients concentrations in the 0-20 cm depths and the improvement of soil invertase, urease, alkaline phosphatase and catalase activities in the topsoil (0-10 cm). However, the opposite effects were observed in the subsoil (20-40 cm). Compared with the 3RT treatment, the 3PT, 2PT+RT and PT+2RT treatments decreased soil bulk density, and significantly enhanced enzyme activities, resulting in an increase in SQI of 32.6%, 24.4% and 0.7%, respectively, especially in the 3PT and 2PT+RT treatments, the difference was significant. When averaged across to all soil depths, the SQI under the 3RT and 2PT+RT treatments was much higher than that under the other treatments. The yields of wheat and maize under the 2PT+RT treatment were 15.0% and 14.3% higher than those under the 3RT treatment, respectively. The 2PT+RT treatment was the most effective tillage practice. These results suggest that RT in rotation with PT could improve soil quality in the soil profile whilst enhancing crop yield after continuous RT, and the benefits were enhanced with an interval time of one year. Therefore, the 2PT+RT treatment could act as an effective method for both soil quality and crop yield improvement in a wheat-maize cropping system under straw incorporation conditions.

Dataset Information

Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure.

Publications

Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure.

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