Optimizing Disease Outbreak Forecast Ensembles.

ABSTRACT: On the basis of historical influenza and COVID-19 forecasts, we found that more than 3 forecast models are needed to ensure robust ensemble accuracy. Additional models can improve ensemble performance, but with diminishing accuracy returns. This understanding will assist with the design of current and future collaborative infectious disease forecasting efforts.

SUBMITTER: Fox SJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11347000 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature