Quantifying the risk of spillover reduction programs for human health.

ABSTRACT: Reducing spillover of zoonotic pathogens is an appealing approach to preventing human disease and minimizing the risk of future epidemics and pandemics. Although the immediate human health benefit of reducing spillover is clear, over time, spillover reduction could lead to counterintuitive negative consequences for human health. Here, we use mathematical models and computer simulations to explore the conditions under which unanticipated consequences of spillover reduction can occur in systems where the severity of disease increases with age at infection. Our results demonstrate that, because the average age at infection increases as spillover is reduced, programs that reduce spillover can actually increase population-level disease burden if the clinical severity of infection increases suff

SUBMITTER: Nuismer SL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11349207 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature