Dataset Information

A consistent budgeting of terrestrial carbon fluxes.

ABSTRACT: Accurate estimates of CO₂ emissions from anthropogenic land-use change (E_LUC) and of the natural terrestrial CO₂ sink (S_LAND) are crucial to precisely know how much CO₂ can still be emitted to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. In current carbon budgets, E_LUC and S_LAND stem from two model families that differ in how CO₂ fluxes are attributed to environmental and land-use changes, making their estimates conceptually inconsistent. Here we provide consistent estimates of E_LUC and S_LAND by integrating environmental effects on land carbon into a spatially explicit bookkeeping model. We find that state-of-the-art process-based models overestimate S_LAND by 23% (min: 8%, max: 33%) in 2012-2021, as they include hypothetical sinks that in reality are lost through historical ecosystem degradation. Additionally, E_LUC increases by 14% (8%, 23%) in 2012-2021 when considering environmental effects. Altogether, we find a weaker net land sink, which makes reaching carbon neutrality even more ambitious. These results highlight that a consistent estimation of terrestrial carbon fluxes is essential to assess the progress of net-zero emission commitments and the remaining carbon budget.

SUBMITTER: Dorgeist L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11358497 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

A consistent budgeting of terrestrial carbon fluxes.

Dorgeist Lea L Schwingshackl Clemens C Bultan Selma S Pongratz Julia J

Nature communications 20240828 1

Accurate estimates of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land-use change (ELUC) and of the natural terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are crucial to precisely know how much CO2 can still be emitted to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. In current carbon budgets, ELUC and SLAND stem from two model families that differ in how CO2 fluxes are attributed to environmental and land-use changes, making their estimates co ...[more]

PMID: 39198386

Similar Datasets

Project description:Countries have pledged to different national and international environmental agreements, most prominently the climate change mitigation targets of the Paris Agreement. Accounting for carbon stocks and flows (fluxes) is essential for countries that have recently adopted the United Nations System of Environmental-Economic Accounting - ecosystem accounting framework (UNSEEA) as a global statistical standard. In this paper, we analyze how spatial carbon fluxes can be used in support of the UNSEEA carbon accounts in five case countries with available in-situ data. Using global multi-date biomass map products and other remotely sensed data, we mapped the 2010-2018 carbon fluxes in Brazil, the Netherlands, the Philippines, Sweden and the USA using National Forest Inventory (NFI) and local biomass maps from airborne LiDAR as reference data. We identified areas that are unsupported by the reference data within environmental feature space (6-47% of vegetated country area); cross-validated an ensemble machine learning (RMSE=9-39 Mg C [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]=0.16-0.71) used to map carbon fluxes with prediction intervals; and assessed spatially correlated residuals (<5 km) before aggregating carbon fluxes from 1-ha pixels to UNSEEA forest classes. The resulting carbon accounting tables revealed the net carbon sequestration in natural broadleaved forests. Both in plantations and in other woody vegetation ecosystems, emissions exceeded sequestration. Overall, our estimates align with FAO-Forest Resource Assessment and national studies with the largest deviations in Brazil and USA. These two countries used highly clustered reference data, where clustering caused uncertainty given the need to extrapolate to under-sampled areas. We finally provide recommendations to mitigate the effect of under-sampling and to better account for the uncertainties once carbon stocks and flows need to be aggregated in relatively smaller countries. These actions are timely given the global initiatives that aim to upscale UNSEEA carbon accounting.

Project description:Mexico has more than 750,000 ha of mangroves and more than 400,000 ha of seagrasses. However, approximately 200,000 ha of mangroves and an unknown area of seagrass have been lost due to coastal development associated with urban, industrial and tourist purposes. In 2018, the approved reforms to the General Law on Climate Change (LGCC) aligned the Mexican law with the international objectives established in the 2nd Article of the Paris Agreement. This action proves Mexico's commitment to contributing to the global target of stabilizing the greenhouse gas emissions concentration in the planet. Thus, restoring and conserving mangrove and seagrass habitats could contribute to fulfilling this commitment. Therefore, as a first step in establishing a mitigation and adaptation plan against climate change with respect to conservation and restoration actions of these ecosystems, we evaluated Mexican blue carbon ecosystems through a systematic review of the carbon stock using the standardized method of Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). We used the data from 126 eligible studies for both ecosystems (n = 1220). The results indicated that information is missing at the regional level. However, the average above and below ground organic carbon stocks from mangroves in Mexico is 113.6 ± 5.5 (95% CI [99.3-118.4]) Mg Corg ha-1 and 385.1 ± 22 (95% CI [344.5-431.9]) Mg Corg ha-1, respectively. The variability in the Corg stocks for both blue carbon ecosystems in Mexico is related to variations in climate, hydrology and geomorphology observed along the country's coasts in addition to the size and number of plots evaluated with respect to the spatial cover. The highest values for mangroves were related to humid climate conditions, although in the case of seagrasses, they were related to low levels of hydrodynamic stress. Based on the official extent of mangrove and seagrass area in Mexico, we estimate a total carbon stock of 237.7 Tg Corg from mangroves and 48.1 Tg Corg from seagrasses. However, mangroves and seagrasses are still being lost due to land use change despite Mexican laws meant to incorporate environmental compensation. Such losses are largely due to loopholes in the legal framework that dilute the laws' effectiveness and thus ability to protect the ecosystem. The estimated emissions from land use change under a conservative approach in mangroves of Mexico were approximately 24 Tg CO2e in the last 20 years. Therefore, the incorporation of blue carbon into the carbon market as a viable source of supplemental finance for mangrove and seagrass protection is an attractive win-win opportunity.

Dataset Information

A consistent budgeting of terrestrial carbon fluxes.

Publications

A consistent budgeting of terrestrial carbon fluxes.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets