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Machine learning approaches to predict the need for intensive care unit admission among Iranian COVID-19 patients based on ICD-10: A cross-sectional study.


ABSTRACT:

Background & aim

Timely identification of the patients requiring intensive care unit admission (ICU) could be life-saving. We aimed to compare different machine learning algorithms to predict the requirements for ICU admission in COVID-19 patients.

Methods

We screened all patients with COVID-19 at six academic hospitals in Tehran comprising our study population. A total of 44,112 COVID-19 patients (≥18 years old) were included, among which 7722 patients were hospitalized. We used a Random Forest algorithm to select significant variables. Then, prediction models were developed using the Support Vector Machine, Naıve Bayes, logistic regression, lightGBM, decision tree, and K-Nearest Neighbor algorithms. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, F1 score, and receiver operating characteristic-Area Under the Curve (AUC) were used to compare the prediction performance of different models.

Results

Based on random Forest, the following predictors were selected: age, cardiac disease, cough, hypertension, diabetes, influenza & pneumonia, malignancy, and nervous system disease. Age was found to have the strongest association with ICU admission among COVID-19 patients. All six models achieved an AUC greater than 0.60. Naıve Bayes achieved the best predictive performance (AUC = 0.71).

Conclusion

Naïve Bayes and lightGBM demonstrated promising results in predicting ICU admission needs in COVID-19 patients. Machine learning models could help quickly identify high-risk patients upon entry and reduce mortality and morbidity among COVID-19 patients.

SUBMITTER: Karimi Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11369020 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Machine learning approaches to predict the need for intensive care unit admission among Iranian COVID-19 patients based on ICD-10: A cross-sectional study.

Karimi Zahra Z   Malak Jaleh S JS   Aghakhani Amirhossein A   Najafi Mohammad S MS   Ariannejad Hamid H   Zeraati Hojjat H   Yekaninejad Mir S MS  

Health science reports 20240902 9


<h4>Background & aim</h4>Timely identification of the patients requiring intensive care unit admission (ICU) could be life-saving. We aimed to compare different machine learning algorithms to predict the requirements for ICU admission in COVID-19 patients.<h4>Methods</h4>We screened all patients with COVID-19 at six academic hospitals in Tehran comprising our study population. A total of 44,112 COVID-19 patients (≥18 years old) were included, among which 7722 patients were hospitalized. We used  ...[more]

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