Global forecasting of chronic kidney disease mortality rates and numbers with the generalized additive model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an important public health problem worldwide; therefore, forecasting CKD mortality rates and death numbers globally is vital for planning CKD prevention programs. This study aimed to characterize the temporal trends in CKD mortality at the international level from 1990 to 2019 and predict CKD mortality rates and numbers until 2030.

Methods

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study. A joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percentage change in CKD mortality rates and numbers. Finally, we used a generalized additive model to predict CKD mortality through 2030.

Results

The number of CKD-related deaths worldwide increased from 591.80 thousand in 1990 to 1425.67 thousand in 2019. T

SUBMITTER: Shahbazi F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11370028 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature