Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability.

ABSTRACT: Climate events that break records by large margins are a threat to society and ecosystems. Climate change is expected to increase the probability of such events, but quantifying these probabilities is challenging due to natural variability and limited data availability, especially for observations and very rare extremes. Here we estimate the probability of precipitation events that shatter records by a margin of at least one pre-industrial standard deviation. Using large ensemble climate simulations and extreme value theory, we determine empirical and analytical record shattering probabilities and find they are in high agreement. We show that, particularly in high emission scenarios, models project much higher record-shattering precipitation probabilities in a changing relative to a statio

SUBMITTER: de Vries I 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11371648 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature