Dataset Information

Predicting the Progression of Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Dementia Using Recurrent Neural Networks With a Series of Neuropsychological Tests.

ABSTRACT:

Background and purpose

The prevalence of Alzheimer's dementia (AD) is increasing as populations age, causing immense suffering for patients, families, and communities. Unfortunately, no treatments for this neurodegenerative disease have been established. Predicting AD is therefore becoming more important, because early diagnosis is the best way to prevent its onset and delay its progression.

Methods

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is the stage between normal cognition and AD, with large variations in its progression. The disease can be effectively managed by accurately predicting the probability of MCI progressing to AD over several years. In this study we used the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset to predict the progression of MCI to AD over a 3-year period from baseline. We developed and compared various recurrent neural network (RNN) models to determine the predictive effectiveness of four neuropsychological (NP) tests and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data at baseline.

Results

The experimental results confirmed that the Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite score was the most effective of the four NP tests, and that the prediction performance of the NP tests improved over time. Moreover, the gated recurrent unit model exhibited the best performance among the prediction models, with an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.916.

Conclusions

Timely prediction of progression from MCI to AD can be achieved using a series of NP test results and an RNN, both with and without using the baseline MRI data.

SUBMITTER: Park C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11372213 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting the Progression of Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Dementia Using Recurrent Neural Networks With a Series of Neuropsychological Tests.

Park Chaeyoon C Joo Gihun G Roh Minji M Shin Seunghun S Yum Sujin S Yeo Na Young NY Park Sang Won SW Jang Jae-Won JW Im Hyeonseung H

Journal of clinical neurology (Seoul, Korea) 20240901 5

<h4>Background and purpose</h4>The prevalence of Alzheimer's dementia (AD) is increasing as populations age, causing immense suffering for patients, families, and communities. Unfortunately, no treatments for this neurodegenerative disease have been established. Predicting AD is therefore becoming more important, because early diagnosis is the best way to prevent its onset and delay its progression.<h4>Methods</h4>Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is the stage between normal cognition and AD, with ...[more]

PMID: 39227330

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Project description:BackgroundPredicting progression from a stage of Mild Cognitive Impairment to dementia is a major pursuit in current research. It is broadly accepted that cognition declines with a continuum between MCI and dementia. As such, cohorts of MCI patients are usually heterogeneous, containing patients at different stages of the neurodegenerative process. This hampers the prognostic task. Nevertheless, when learning prognostic models, most studies use the entire cohort of MCI patients regardless of their disease stages. In this paper, we propose a Time Windows approach to predict conversion to dementia, learning with patients stratified using time windows, thus fine-tuning the prognosis regarding the time to conversion.MethodsIn the proposed Time Windows approach, we grouped patients based on the clinical information of whether they converted (converter MCI) or remained MCI (stable MCI) within a specific time window. We tested time windows of 2, 3, 4 and 5 years. We developed a prognostic model for each time window using clinical and neuropsychological data and compared this approach with the commonly used in the literature, where all patients are used to learn the models, named as First Last approach. This enables to move from the traditional question "Will a MCI patient convert to dementia somewhere in the future" to the question "Will a MCI patient convert to dementia in a specific time window".ResultsThe proposed Time Windows approach outperformed the First Last approach. The results showed that we can predict conversion to dementia as early as 5 years before the event with an AUC of 0.88 in the cross-validation set and 0.76 in an independent validation set.ConclusionsPrognostic models using time windows have higher performance when predicting progression from MCI to dementia, when compared to the prognostic approach commonly used in the literature. Furthermore, the proposed Time Windows approach is more relevant from a clinical point of view, predicting conversion within a temporal interval rather than sometime in the future and allowing clinicians to timely adjust treatments and clinical appointments.

Project description:BackgroundThe neuropathological confirmation serves as the gold standard for diagnosing Alzheimer's disease (AD), but it is usually not available to the living individuals. In addition, the gold standard for diagnosing Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) remains unclear yet. Neuropsychological testing, such as the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-cog), is commonly used tests in identifying AD and MCI, offering convenience, affordability, non-invasiveness, and accessibility in clinical settings. We aimed to accurately evaluate the discriminative ability of the three tests administrated at the same visit simultaneously in detecting AD and MCI due to AD in the absence of a gold standard.MethodsA total of 1289 participants aged over 65 were included from the baseline visits of Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Bayesian latent class models, accounting for conditional dependence between MoCA and MMSE, were conducted to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the three tests for detecting AD and MCI.ResultsIn detecting AD, the ADAS-cog had the highest Youden's Index (0.829), followed by the MoCA(0.813) and MMSE(0.796). The ADAS-cog and MoCA showed similar sensitivity (0.922 vs 0.912) and specificity (0.907 vs 0.901), while the MMSE had lower sensitivity (0.874) and higher specificity (0.922). For MCI detection, the ADAS-cog had the highest Youden's Index (0.704) compared to the MoCA (0.614) and MMSE (0.478). The ADAS-cog exhibited the highest sensitivity, closely followed by the MoCA and MMSE (0.869 vs 0.845 vs 0.757), and the ADAS-cog also had good specificity (0.835 vs 0.769 vs 0.721). The estimated true prevalence of AD among individuals aged over 65 was 20.0%, and the estimated true prevalence of MCI due to AD was 24.8%.ConclusionsThe findings suggest that the ADAS-cog and MoCA are reliable tools for detecting AD and MCI, while the MMSE may be less sensitive in detecting these conditions. A large underdiagnosis of the MCI and Alzheimer's population still remains in clinical screening.

Project description:Early identification of individuals at risk of developing Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia is important for developing disease-modifying therapies. In this study, given multimodal AD markers and clinical diagnosis of an individual from one or more timepoints, we seek to predict the clinical diagnosis, cognition and ventricular volume of the individual for every month (indefinitely) into the future. We proposed and applied a minimal recurrent neural network (minimalRNN) model to data from The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution (TADPOLE) challenge, comprising longitudinal data of 1677 participants (Marinescu et al., 2018) from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). We compared the performance of the minimalRNN model and four baseline algorithms up to 6 years into the future. Most previous work on predicting AD progression ignore the issue of missing data, which is a prevalent issue in longitudinal data. Here, we explored three different strategies to handle missing data. Two of the strategies treated the missing data as a "preprocessing" issue, by imputing the missing data using the previous timepoint ("forward filling") or linear interpolation ("linear filling). The third strategy utilized the minimalRNN model itself to fill in the missing data both during training and testing ("model filling"). Our analyses suggest that the minimalRNN with "model filling" compared favorably with baseline algorithms, including support vector machine/regression, linear state space (LSS) model, and long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Importantly, although the training procedure utilized longitudinal data, we found that the trained minimalRNN model exhibited similar performance, when using only 1 input timepoint or 4 input timepoints, suggesting that our approach might work well with just cross-sectional data. An earlier version of our approach was ranked 5th (out of 53 entries) in the TADPOLE challenge in 2019. The current approach is ranked 2nd out of 63 entries as of June 3rd, 2020.

Dataset Information

Predicting the Progression of Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Dementia Using Recurrent Neural Networks With a Series of Neuropsychological Tests.

Background and purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Predicting the Progression of Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Dementia Using Recurrent Neural Networks With a Series of Neuropsychological Tests.

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