Project description:Background and aimsThe phylogeography of plant species in sub-tropical China remains largely unclear. This study used Tapiscia sinensis, an endemic and endangered tree species widely but disjunctly distributed in sub-tropical China, as a model to reveal the patterns of genetic diversity and phylogeographical history of Tertiary relict plant species in this region. The implications of the results are discussed in relation to its conservation management.MethodsSamples were taken from 24 populations covering the natural geographical distribution of T. sinensis. Genetic structure was investigated by analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) and spatial analysis of molecular variance (SAMOVA). Phylogenetic relationships among haplotypes were constructed with maximum parsimony and haplotype network methods. Historical population expansion events were tested with pairwise mismatch distribution analysis and neutrality tests. Species potential range was deduced by ecological niche modelling (ENM).Key resultsA low level of genetic diversity was detected at the population level. A high level of genetic differentiation and a significant phylogeographical structure were revealed. The mean divergence time of the haplotypes was approx. 1·33 million years ago. Recent range expansion in this species is suggested by a star-like haplotype network and by the results from the mismatch distribution analysis and neutrality tests.ConclusionsClimatic oscillations during the Pleistocene have had pronounced effects on the extant distribution of Tapiscia relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Spatial patterns of molecular variation and ENM suggest that T. sinensis may have retreated in south-western and central China and colonized eastern China prior to the LGM. Multiple montane refugia for T. sinense existing during the LGM are inferred in central and western China. The populations adjacent to or within these refugia of T. sinense should be given high priority in the development of conservation policies and management strategies for this endangered species.
Project description:This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5‒1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata.