Dependence of tropical cyclone seeds and climate sensitivity on tropical cloud response.

ABSTRACT: Projections of future tropical cyclone frequency are uncertain, ranging from a slight increase to a considerable decrease according to climate models. Estimation of how much the Earth's surface temperature warms in response to greenhouse gas increase, quantified by effective climate sensitivity, is also uncertain. These two uncertainties have historically been studied independently as they concern different scales: One quantifies the extreme weather and the other the mean climate. Here, we show that these two uncertainties are not independent and are both influenced by the response of tropical clouds to warming. Across climate models, we show an anticorrelation between shortwave cloud radiative feedback and changes in the frequency of seed vortices, a prevalent type of tropical cyclone pre

SUBMITTER: Hsieh TL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11389784 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature