Predicting possible distribution of rice leaf roller (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis) under climate change scenarios using MaxEnt model in China.

ABSTRACT: The relationship between climate conditions and pest life is a key determinant of their distribution. Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee, a major rice pest, exhibits outbreaks and its distribution patterns closely linked to meteorological factors. By using 244 actual distribution and occurrence data of C. medinalis along with 8 bioclimatic data, and employing the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS, combined with the latest SSPs climate scenario data, this study evaluated the risk region distribution status in the current period and predicted changes in China from 2040 to 2100. The results indicate that an overall increase in the risk area for C. medinalis, particularly under SSP245 scenario during 2040-2060. While Low-risk areas are expected to decrease, Medium and High-risk areas are projected to incre

SUBMITTER: Zhao Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11391071 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature