Observation-constrained projections reveal longer-than-expected dry spells.

ABSTRACT: Climate models indicate that dry extremes will be exacerbated in many regions of the world^1,2. However, confidence in the magnitude and timing of these projected changes remains low^3,4, leaving societies largely unprepared^5,6. Here we show that constraining model projections with observations using a newly proposed emergent constraint (EC) reduces the uncertainty in predictions of a core drought indicator, the longest annual dry spell (LAD), by 10-26% globally. Our EC-corrected projections reveal that the increase in LAD will be 42-44% greater, on average, than 'mid-range' or 'high-end' future forcing scenarios currently indicate. These results imply that by the end of this century, the global mean land-only LAD could be 10 days longer than currently expect

SUBMITTER: Petrova IY 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11410650 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature