Emergent constraints on future Amazon climate change-induced carbon loss using past global warming trends.

ABSTRACT: Reducing uncertainty in the response of the Amazon rainforest, a vital component of the Earth system, to future climate change is crucial for refining climate projections. Here we demonstrate an emergent constraint (EC) on the future response of the Amazon carbon cycle to climate change across CMIP6 Earth system models. Models that overestimate past global warming trends, tend to estimate hotter and drier future Amazon conditions, driven by northward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone over the Atlantic Ocean, causing greater Amazon carbon loss. The proposed EC changes the mean CMIP6 Amazon climate-induced carbon loss estimate (excluding CO₂ fertilisation and land-use change impacts) from -0.27 (-0.59-0.05) to -0.16 (-0.42-0.10) GtC year^-1 at 4.4 °C warming l

SUBMITTER: Melnikova I 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11412974 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature