Randomised Badger Culling Trial lacks evidence for proactive badger culling effect on tuberculosis in cattle: comment on Mills et al. 2024, Parts I & II.

ABSTRACT: Re-evaluation of statistical analysis of the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) by Torgerson et al. 2024 was rebutted by Mills et al. 2024 Parts I and II. The rebuttal defended the use of count rather than rate when considering bovine tuberculosis herd incidence. The defence makes biologically implausible use of Information Criterion for appraisal diagnostics; overfits data; and has erroneous Bayesian analyses. It favours 'goodness of fit' over 'predictive power', for a small data set, when the study was to inform application. Importantly, for 'total' bTB breakdown: ('confirmed' (OTF-W) +'unconfirmed' (OTF-S)), where modern interpretation of the main diagnostic bTB test better indicates the incidence rate of herd breakdown, there is no effect in cull and neighbouring areas, across all

SUBMITTER: Torgerson PR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11429747 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature