Predictive modelling of the UK physician associate supply: 2014-2038.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan aims for 10,000 physician associates (PAs, formerly physician assistants) by 2036/7. This article uses three modelling approaches to project the UK PA supply from a baseline of 2014-2021 through to 2038 to forecast the profession's growth.

Methods

The number of cClinically available PAs' (cPAs; qualified PAs either working clinically or seeking clinical employment) was estimated using raw data from the 2014-2021 Faculty of Physician Associates censuses. This provided baseline data for all models (linear regression (LRM), exponential regression (ERM) and time-series forecast (TSFM)). Attrition, using data from other healthcare professions, was also modelled.

Results

R ² values together with authors' judgem

SUBMITTER: Bakker EY 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11437936 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature