Effects of sceptical priors on the performance of adaptive clinical trials with binary outcomes.

ABSTRACT: It is unclear how sceptical priors impact adaptive trials. We assessed the influence of priors expressing a spectrum of scepticism on the performance of several Bayesian, multi-stage, adaptive clinical trial designs using binary outcomes under different clinical scenarios. Simulations were conducted using fixed stopping rules and stopping rules calibrated to keep type 1 error rates at approximately 5%. We assessed total sample sizes, event rates, event counts, probabilities of conclusiveness and selecting the best arm, root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of the estimated treatment effect in the selected arms, and ideal design percentages (IDPs; which combines arm selection probabilities, power, and consequences of selecting inferior arms), with RMSEs and IDPs estimated in conclusive trials on

SUBMITTER: Granholm A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11438950 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Sep-Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature