Evidenced-Based Prior for Estimating the Treatment Effect of Phase III Randomized Trials in Oncology.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

The primary results of phase III oncology trials may be challenging to interpret, given that results are generally based on P value thresholds. The probability of whether a treatment is beneficial, although more intuitive, is not usually provided. Here, we developed and released a user-friendly tool that calculates the probability of treatment benefit using trial summary statistics.

Methods

We curated 415 phase III randomized trials enrolling 338,600 patients published between 2004 and 2020. A phase III prior probability distribution for the treatment effect was developed on the basis of a three-component zero-mean mixture distribution of the observed z-scores. Using this prior, we computed the probability of clinically meaningful benefit (hazard ratio [HR] <0

SUBMITTER: Sherry AD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11444522 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature