Predicting influenza in China from October 1, 2023, to February 5, 2024: A transmission dynamics model based on population migration.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Since November 2023, influenza has ranked first in reported cases of infectious diseases in China, with the outbreak in both northern and southern provinces exceeding the levels observed during the same period in 2022. This poses a serious health risk to the population. Therefore, short to medium-term influenza predictions are beneficial for epidemic assessment and can reduce the disease burden.

Methods

A transmission dynamics model considering population migration, encompassing susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) was used to predict the dynamics of influenza before the Spring Festival travel rush.

Results

The overall epidemic shows a declining trend, with the peak expected to occur from week 47 in 2023 to week 1 in 2024. The num

SUBMITTER: Qu H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11459688 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature