Projecting future excess deaths associated with extreme precipitation events in China under changing climate: an integrated modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Climate-change-induced extreme precipitation events have attracted global attention; however, the associated excess deaths burden has been insufficiently explored and remains unclear.

Methods

We first defined an extreme precipitation event for each county when the daily total precipitation exceeded the county-specific 99·5th percentile of the daily precipitation from 1986 to 2005; then we estimated the associations between extreme precipitation events and cause-specific deaths in 280 Chinese counties using a two-stage time-series model. Second, we projected the excess deaths related to extreme precipitation events by combining the bias-corrected multi-model precipitation predictions derived under different combined emission-population scenarios of three representa

SUBMITTER: Ban J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11461903 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature