Overconfidence in climate overshoot.

ABSTRACT: Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement¹. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy^2-5. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited re

SUBMITTER: Schleussner CF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11464373 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature