Future increase in extreme El Nino supported by past glacial changes.

ABSTRACT: El Niño events, the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, amplify climate variability throughout the world¹. Uncertain climate model predictions limit our ability to assess whether these climatic events could become more extreme under anthropogenic greenhouse warming². Palaeoclimate records provide estimates of past changes, but it is unclear if they can constrain mechanisms underlying future predictions^3-5. Here we uncover a mechanism using numerical simulations that drives consistent changes in response to past and future forcings, allowing model validation against palaeoclimate data. The simulated mechanism is consistent with the dynamics of observed extreme El Niño events, which develop when western Pacific warm pool waters e

SUBMITTER: Thirumalai K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11464383 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature