Forecasting migration movements using prediction markets.

ABSTRACT: Migration forecasts are crucial for proactive immigration and integration management. While the demand for accurate migration forecasts continues to grow, the current state of migration forecasting is still unsatisfactory, because they tend to lack precision. We introduce an alternative method to forecast migration movements: prediction markets. While prediction markets are mainly unknown in migration studies, they are established in the political economy of forecasting election outcomes. For its application to a complex phenomenon in a more constrained information environment such as migration movements, we argue that prediction markets allow to balance complementarities of current qualitative and quantitative approaches if they provide solutions to avoid thin trading and integrate expert

SUBMITTER: Morgenstern S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11464559 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature