A Microsimulation Model of Mpox in Los Angeles County: Implications for Future Disease Prevention and Control Strategies among Men Who Have Sex with Men.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The 2022 monkeypox (mpox) outbreak in Los Angeles County (LAC) emphasized the need to prepare for emergent infectious disease outbreaks. Vaccination and promotion of sexual risk reduction practices appeared successful in LAC, as mpox cases declined starting in August. Nonetheless, questions persisted regarding the effectiveness of targeting vaccinations and the role of sexual risk reduction in reducing mpox cases.

Methods

We collaborated with the LAC Department of Public Health to develop a microsimulation for men who have sex with men (MSM). This model tracked mpox dynamics by age, race/ethnicity, and HIV status and was calibrated and validated against surveillance data. We simulated counterfactual scenarios to understand the effects of variation in vaccination r

SUBMITTER: Liang C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11477083 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature