Population and transmission dynamics model to determine WHO targets for eliminating Hepatitis C virus in Thailand.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Hepatitis C Virus is endemic to many areas of Thailand, whose population structure is tending towards older age groups as birth rate and mortality decrease. With around 790,000 cases in 2019, prevalence is still relatively high, but the World Health Organisation has called for elimination of HCV by 2030.

Methods

An age structured compartmental transmission model was used to explore the effectiveness of screening strategies with respect to WHO elimination goals, as well as the effect of changing population structure on the success or failure of such strategies.

Results

Population structure did not appear to affect the timeline of elimination targets and screening individuals over the age of 30 at a high (50% per year) coverage could bring forward achievement

SUBMITTER: Astley J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11482681 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature