Seismic slip channeling along the East Anatolian Fault illuminates long-term supercycle behavior.

ABSTRACT: The two Mw > 7.5 earthquakes that struck the East Anatolian Fault (EAF), Türkiye, in 2023 caused more slip than expected, indicating that they were potentially part of a supercycle, in which the occurrence probability of a large earthquake is determined by accumulated strain rather than time since the last large earthquake. Here, we show two potential supercycles along the EAF, analyzing earthquakes from the last two millennia. Within each supercycle, seismic ruptures originated in the northeast and progressively spread southwestward with an increasing number of earthquakes until a new supercycle began with another large earthquake in the northeast. To understand the supercycle behavior, we analyze the aftershock sequences of the four most recent Mw≥6.1 mainshocks (2010-2023). This series

SUBMITTER: Billi A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11484914 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature