The Trends of Gastric Cancer in China From 1990 to 2019 and Predictions to 2040: A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Prediction Study.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

This study aims to provide the most up-to-date temporal trends in incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of total gastric cancer in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the gastric cancer trends up to 2040.

Methods

Data for the incidence, mortality, and DALYs of stomach cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). We conducted joinpoint regression analysis to explore possible segmented changes in gastric cancer trends. We predicted gastric cancer trends up to 2040 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results

The absolute incidence, mortality, and DALYs of gastric cancer increased from 1990 to 2019 in China. However, the age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, mort

SUBMITTER: Yang H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11489932 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan-Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature