Projecting the future impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants under uncertainty: Modeling the initial Omicron outbreak.

ABSTRACT: Over the past several years, the emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants has led to multiple waves of increased COVID-19 incidence. When the Omicron variant emerged, there was considerable concern about its potential impact in the winter of 2021-2022 due to its increased fitness. However, there was also considerable uncertainty regarding its likely impact due to questions about its relative transmissibility, severity, and degree of immune escape. We sought to evaluate the ability of an agent-based model to forecast incidence in the context of this emerging pathogen variant. To project COVID-19 cases and deaths in Indiana, we calibrated our model to COVID-19 hospitalizations, deaths, and test-positivity rates through November 2021, and then projected COVID-19 incidence through April 2022 und

SUBMITTER: Moore S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11493339 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature