Venturing Into the Unknown: The Importance of Variable Selection When Modelling Alien Species Under Non-Analogue Climatic Conditions.

ABSTRACT: Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to address species' responses to bioclimatic conditions in the fields of ecology, biogeography and conservation. Among studies that have addressed reasons for model prediction variability, the impact of climatic variable selection has received limited attention and is rarely assessed in sensitivity analyses. Here, we tested the assumption that this aspect of model design is a major source of uncertainty, especially when projections are made to non-analogue climates. As a study system, we used 142 alien plant species introduced to the sub-Antarctic islands. Based on global occurrence data, we fitted SDMs as functions of seven bioclimatic variable sets that only differed in the identity of two temperature variables. Moreover, we calculated t

SUBMITTER: Vorstenbosch T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11518623 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature