Antecedent Effect Models as an Exploratory Tool to Link Climate Drivers to Herbaceous Perennial Population Dynamics Data.

ABSTRACT: Understanding mechanisms and predicting natural population responses to climate is a key goal of Ecology. However, studies explicitly linking climate to population dynamics remain limited. Antecedent effect models are a set of statistical tools that capitalize on the evidence provided by climate and population data to select time windows correlated with a response (e.g., survival, reproduction). Thus, these models can serve as both a predictive and exploratory tool. We compare the predictive performance of antecedent effect models against simpler models and showcase their exploratory analysis potential by selecting a case study with high predictive power. We fit three antecedent effect models: (1) weighted mean models (WMM), which weigh the importance of monthly anomalies based on a Gaussi

SUBMITTER: Compagnoni A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11519827 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature