Prediction of heatwave related mortality magnitude, duration and frequency with climate variability and climate change information.

ABSTRACT: Given the link between climatic factors on one hand, such as climate change and low frequency climate oscillation indices, and the occurrence and magnitude of heat waves on the other hand, and given the impact of heat waves on mortality, these climatic factors could provide some predictive skill for mortality. We propose a new model, the Mortality-Duration-Frequency (MDF) relationship, to relate the intensity of an extreme summer mortality event to its duration and frequency. The MDF model takes into account the non-stationarities observed in the mortality data through covariates by integrating information concerning climate change through the time trend and climate variability through climate oscillation indices. The proposed approach was applied to all-cause mortality data from 1983 to 2

SUBMITTER: Ouarda TBMJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11525403 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature