Extreme precipitation, exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change, drove Peru's record-breaking 2023 dengue outbreak.

ABSTRACT: Anthropogenic forcing is increasing the likelihood and severity of certain extreme weather events, which may catalyze outbreaks of climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Extreme precipitation events can promote the spread of mosquito-borne illnesses by creating vector habitat, destroying infrastructure, and impeding vector control. Here, we focus on Cyclone Yaku, which caused heavy rainfall in northwestern Peru from March 7th - 20th, 2023 and was followed by the worst dengue outbreak in Peru's history. We apply generalized synthetic control methods to account for baseline climate variation and unobserved confounders when estimating the causal effect of Cyclone Yaku on dengue cases across the 56 districts with the greatest precipitation anomalies. We estimate that 67 (95% CI: 30 - 87) % of

SUBMITTER: Harris MJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11537325 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature