Validation of a 5-Year Prognostic Model for Parkinson's Disease.

ABSTRACT:

Background

A simple prognostic model was previously developed to predict the probability of recently-diagnosed patients reaching negative outcomes (postural instability, dementia or death) in a 5-year period.

Objectives

To validate this model in an independent cohort and establish utility at later time points.

Methods

Validation was performed using data collected in an incident cohort at baseline, 2 and 4 years. Predicted negative outcome probabilities were compared to actual 5-year outcomes.

Results

The model, based on age, MDS-UPDRS axial score and 60-second animal fluency, predicted poor 5-year outcome when applied at baseline, (area under the curve (AUC) 0.80), 2 years (AUC 0.82) and 4 years (AUC 0.71). Power calculations showed that selecting a subgroup wi

SUBMITTER: Ribeiro J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11542283 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature