Development of an approach to forecast future takeaway outlet growth around schools and population exposure to takeaways in England.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Neighbourhood exposure to takeaways can contribute negatively to diet and diet-related health outcomes. Urban planners within local authorities (LAs) in England can modify takeaway exposure through denying planning permission to new outlets in management zones around schools. LAs sometimes refer to these as takeaway "exclusion zones". Understanding the long-term impacts of this intervention on the takeaway retail environment and health, an important policy question, requires methods to forecast future takeaway growth and subsequent population-level exposure to takeaways. In this paper we describe a novel two-stage method to achieve this.

Methods

We used historic data on locations of takeaways and a time-series auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) mode

SUBMITTER: Liu B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11550555 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature