Time-varying trends from Arctic ozonesonde time series in the years 1994-2022.

ABSTRACT: Although evidence of recovery in Antarctic stratospheric ozone has been found, evidence of recovery in Arctic ozone is still elusive, even though 25 years have passed since the peak in ozone depleting substances. Here we have used a Dynamic Linear Model to derive time-varying trends over 20-year periods in the Arctic ozone time series, measured in-situ by ozonesondes from 6 stations, from 1994 to 2022. The model accounts for seasonality, external forcing and 1st-order correlation in the residuals. As proxies for the external forcing, we have used tropopause pressure (replaced with Arctic Oscillation in the troposphere), eddy heat flux, the volume of polar stratospheric clouds multiplied by effective equivalent stratospheric chlorine, and solar radio flux at 10.7 cm for the 11-year solar cy

SUBMITTER: Nilsen K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11557962 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature