Projected number of people in need for long-term care in Germany until 2050.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Current demographic trends predict continuously growing numbers of individuals reliant on care, which has to be accounted for in future planning of long-term care-resources. The projection of developments becomes especially necessary in order to enable healthcare systems to cope with this future burden and to implement suitable strategies to deal with the demand of long-term care. This study aimed to project the prevalence of long-term care and the number of care-dependent people in Germany until 2050.

Methods

We used the illness-death model to project the future prevalence of long-term care in Germany until 2050 considering eight different scenarios. Therefore, transition rates (incidence rate and mortality rates) describing the illness-death model are needed,

SUBMITTER: Haß L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11558338 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature