Assessing yellow fever outbreak potential and implications for vaccine strategy.

ABSTRACT: Yellow fever (YF), a vector-borne viral hemorrhagic fever, is endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America, with large vaccination programmes being used for control. However, significant outbreaks have occurred in recent years. Data on infection rates and seroprevalence is often sparse, requiring robust mathematical models to estimate the burden of yellow fever. In particular, modelling is required to estimate the risk of outbreaks and inform policy decisions regarding the targeting of vaccination. We present a dynamic, stochastic model of YF transmission which uses environmental covariates to estimate the force of infection due to spillover from the sylvatic (non-human primate) reservoir and the basic reproduction number for human-to-human transmission. We examine the potential

SUBMITTER: Fraser K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11560047 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature