Enterovirus A71 and coxsackievirus A6 circulation in England, UK, 2006-2017: A mathematical modelling study using cross-sectional seroprevalence data.

ABSTRACT: Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and coxsackievirus A6 (CVA6) primarily cause hand, foot and mouth disease and have emerged to cause potential fatal neurological and systemic manifestations. However, limited surveillance data collected through passive surveillance systems hampers characterization of their epidemiological dynamics. We fit a series of catalytic models to age-stratified seroprevalence data for EV-A71 and CVA6 collected in England at three time points (2006, 2011 and 2017) to estimate the force of infection (FOI) over time and assess possible changes in transmission. For both serotypes, model comparison does not support the occurrence of important changes in transmission over the study period, and we find that a declining risk of infection with age and / or seroreversion are needed to

SUBMITTER: Kamau E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11578500 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature