A Bayesian Mixture Model approach to expected possession values in rugby league.

ABSTRACT: This study aimed to introduce a novel Bayesian Mixture Model approach to the development of an EPV model in rugby league, which could produce a smooth pitch surface and estimate individual possession outcome probabilities. 99,966 observations from the 2021 Super League season were used. A set of 33 centres (30 in the field of play, 3 in the opposition try area) were located across the pitch. Each centre held the probability of five possession outcomes occurring (converted/unconverted try, penalty, drop goal and no points). Probabilities at each centre were interpolated to all locations on the pitch and estimated using a Bayesian approach. An EPV measure was derived from the possession outcome probabilities and their points value. The model produced a smooth pitch surface, which was able to

SUBMITTER: Sawczuk T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11581272 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature