Future Scenarios for River Exports of Multiple Pollutants by Sources and Sub-Basins Worldwide: Rising Pollution for the Indian Ocean.

ABSTRACT: In the future, rivers may export more pollutants to coastal waters, driven by socio-economic development, increased material consumption, and climate change. However, existing scenarios often ignore multi-pollutant problems. Here, we aim to explore future trends in annual river exports of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), plastics (macro and micro), and emerging contaminants (triclosan and diclofenac) at the sub-basin scale worldwide. For this, we implement into the process-based MARINA-Multi model (Model to Assess River Inputs of pollutaNts to the seAs) two new multi-pollutant scenarios: "Sustainability-driven Future" (SD) and "Economy-driven Future" (ED). In ED, river exports of nutrients and microplastics will double by 2100, globally. In SD, a decrease of up to 83% is projected for

SUBMITTER: Micella I 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11583118 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature