Forecasting Alcohol-Related Liver Disease Mortality Trends in Younger Populations Using Advanced Time-Series Models: A 1999-2030 Analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) has emerged as a significant public health concern, particularly among younger populations. ALD remains the leading cause of alcohol-attributable deaths. This study aims to forecast ALD mortality trends up to 2030, focusing on individuals under 55 years.

Methods

We utilized data from the CDC WONDER database (1999-2022) to examine ALD-related deaths, identified by ICD-10 codes (K70.0-K70.9). Crude mortality rates (CMRs) per 100 000 were analyzed and temporal trends were assessed using annual and average annual percent changes (APC/AAPC) with empirical quantile confidence intervals. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was employed to project mortality rates until 2030, validated through time series cross-valid

SUBMITTER: Ali H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11614748 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature