Time series modelling and forecasting of Monkeypox outbreak trends Africa's in most affected countries.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The recent outbreak of Monkeypox (Mpox), particularly the clade 1b variant, have shifted the epidemiological landscape, making it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Africa remains a hotspot with significant ongoing outbreaks, necessitating a focused study on outbreak trends and forecasting to guide health interventions.

Methods

This study utilizes a comprehensive dataset from the four most affected African countries, covering weekly and cumulative Mpox cases from August 6, 2023, to August 18, 2024. Time series analysis techniques, including ARIMA models and Join Point Regression, were employed to forecast Mpox trends and analyse the annual percentage change in new cases.

Results

Descriptive statistics highlighted significant variability in

SUBMITTER: Jena D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11616522 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature