Modelling COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Laos under non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination, and replacement of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Understanding how the COVID-19 pandemic evolved under control measures is crucial to tackle the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread. Laos, a country bordering China but with late occurrence and low burden of COVID-19 compared to its neighbouring countries, was used for a case study.

Methods

A transmission model with disease reporting was proposed to investigate the impact of control measures on the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread in Laos from April 2021 to May 2022. It was assumed that the transmission rate changed with people's behaviours, control measures and emerging variants; susceptibility decreased with vaccination and infection. Bayesian inference was used for model calibration to data of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries, and the deviance information criterion was used

SUBMITTER: Zhang XS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11622881 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature