Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations.

ABSTRACT: Multiple recent record-shattering weather events raise questions about the adequacy of climate models to effectively predict and prepare for unprecedented climate impacts on human life, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Here, we show that extreme heat in several regions globally is increasing significantly and faster in magnitude than what state-of-the-art climate models have predicted under present warming even after accounting for their regional summer background warming. Across all global land area, models underestimate positive trends exceeding 0.5 °C per decade in widening of the upper tail of extreme surface temperature distributions by a factor of four compared to reanalysis data and exhibit a lower fraction of significantly increasing trends overall. To a lesser degree, models also u

SUBMITTER: Kornhuber K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11626130 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature