Estimating the time of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus introduction into United States poultry flocks during the 2022/24 epizootic.

ABSTRACT: Following confirmation of the first case of the ongoing U.S. HPAI H5N1 epizootic in commercial poultry on February 8, 2022, the virus has continued to devastate the U.S. poultry sector and the pathogen has since managed to cross over to livestock and a few human cases have also been reported. Efficient outbreak management benefits greatly from timely detection and proper identification of the pathways of virus introduction and spread. In this study, we used changes in mortality rates as a proxy for HPAI incidence in a layer, broiler and turkey flock together with diagnostic test results to infer within-flock HPAI transmission dynamics. Mathematical modeling techniques, specifically the Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm in conjunction with a stochastic within-flock HPAI transmissio

SUBMITTER: Ssematimba A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11642945 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature