Trends and projections of Hepatitis A incidence in eastern China from 2007 to 2021: an age-period-cohort analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

This study aimed to analyze the trends in Hepatitis A incidence associated with age, period, and birth cohorts from 2007 to 2021 in Jiangsu Province, China, and projects the future burden through 2031.

Methods

Data on Hepatitis A cases in Jiangsu Province from 2007 to 2021 were obtained from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System. Joinpoint regression analysis identified significant changes in incidence trends. The age-period-cohort model assessed the effects of age, period, and cohort on Hepatitis A incidence rates. Projections for 2022-2031 were generated using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results

From 2007 to 2021, Hepatitis A incidence in Jiangsu Province significantly declined, with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of -10.77%.

SUBMITTER: Peng H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11652658 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature